The rainfall forecast for the next seven days is calling for increased rains of up to 50—100 mm cumulative in the southern regions of Gedo, Middle Juba, Bay, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle and Hiraan. The Juba catchment in the Ethiopian highland is also expected to record moderate to heavy rains in the coming week. Somaliland, Puntland and central regions will remain dry during the week in review. Given the rainfall forecast, river level along the Juba are expected to rise in the next few days with minimal risk of flooding. There is a cause for concern in Puntland which has remained dry in the last two weeks. No rainfall is foreseen in this area in the coming week.

During the last week, some places in the southern regions of the country, received light to moderate rains with a few stations recording cumulative amounts of 10 to 40mm. The Ethiopian highlands, which contribute significantly to the river flow of Juba and Shabelle rivers inside Somalia, also recorded moderate rains in the last week. The central parts, Somaliland and Puntland continued to remain dry during the same week. Moderate rains during the past week in the southern regions of Somalia, improved the soil moisture conditions and led to a slight increase of river levels, which are however below normal at this time of the year especially in the upper and middle sections of the river at Belet Weyne and Jowhar. With a forecast of below normal rains in the coming week, the river levels are likely to continue dropping. There remains a significant rainfall deficit in Puntland and central regions of Somalia. Soil moisture deficits coupled with high temperatures have led to water shortage and depreciation of pasture in the area. With no foreseen significant rainfall, amounts in the coming weeks, and following the deteriorating situation on the ground, the Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management Agency (HADMA) has appealed for early humanitarian interventions in Puntland on behalf of the local government.

The three days cumulated rainfall forecast is pointing towards light rains in scattered places across the country with Puntland expected to remain dry within the three days. Rainfall activities are expected to increase as seen in the one week forecast towards the end of the week especially in Southern and central parts of Somalia and the upper parts of the Juba and Shabelle basins within the Ethiopian highlands. Hot and dry conditions remain a concern in Somaliland and Puntland with the rainy season coming to an end. River levels along the Juba and Shabelle basins remain within the normal ranges with no risk of flooding given the rainfall forecast.

The 2018 Deyr rainy season was generally poor with many areas in Somalia recording average to below average rains. This is contrary to earlier predictions of enhanced rainfall in the country. Some areas in Sool, Sanaag and most of the central regions recorded little or no rains during the season. The season started off well in the northern regions and ended early while the southern regions experienced a prolonged delay of the rains which ended in late November and early December. Since the beginning of December, good rains were recorded in the southern regions, however the accumulated amounts were not sufficient to fully erode seasonal deficits. Map 1 gives an analysis of the rainfall performance during the season based on the observed rainfall data and field reports while Map 2 shows a comparison of the seasonal rainfall compared to the long term mean based on satellite rainfall estimates data.

The Deyr 2018 rainy season started in some parts of the country during the last week of September and is yet to start in some parts of the country especially in the southern regions. Following the passage of Tropical Strom LUBAN, that made a landfall in Yemen on 14 October 2018, parts of the northern coastal areas of Puntland received light to moderate rains in the last two days. While LUBAN was a threat to the shipping line of Puntland, no damage has been associated with the storm inland of the country. The rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days is calling for light to moderate amounts of rainfall in the northern regions and within the Ethiopian highlands. The central and southern regions of Somalia will receive little or no rains during the forecast period.

The north eastern parts of the country recorded good rains over the last few days with some stations in southern parts of Togdheer and Sool regions recording over 50mm of rainfall. The rains are expected to continue spreading further in the coming weeks until the end of season in November. The rainfall forecast for the next three days is calling for moderate amounts of rainfall in most places of Puntland and central regions. The rains are expected to intensify in time and space during the week ending on 08 October 2018. Moderate rains are also expected in the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands during the coming week. Other areas will remain dry in the next one week with little or no rains.

In Somalia, challenges related to energy access is influenced by both weather and climate extremes and associated conflict. The objective of this article is to gain an improved understanding of these risks and challenges, which are faced by the most vulnerable populations in the country. In particular, cooking energy-related challenges faced by households affected by weather and climate extremes and conflicts include protection risks, malnutrition, health risks, environmental degradation and heightened tension and conflict between social groups. Interventions to address these issues should focus on both fuel supply and fuel demand as well as on improving the livelihoods of affected populations. In the aftermath of an extreme weather event it is recommended that assessments of the energy needs of all affected populations, including both hosts and Internally Displaced People (IDPs), be conducted. Post-disaster support should include the promotion of energy-efficient technologies for cooking as well as alternative sources of fuel where available, including non-wood based renewable energy. The implementation of a field inventory to assess the status of natural resources in areas vulnerable to climate impacts could help to determine woody biomass trends and enable the development of ecosystem restoration plans. These could include provisions for the establishment of woodlots and agro-forestry, thus building resilience to environmental degradation while maintaining woody biomass resources in and around displacement camps. Interventions should also be designed jointly with partners, and activities should be conflict-sensitive to ensure an enhanced state of resiliency and preparedness among vulnerable populations.

A recent forecast issued by the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF50), issued on 28 August 2018, indicates a greater likelihood of normal to above normal 2018 Deyr (October-December) rains across Somalia. Specifically, the forecast indicates 35 percent probability of above normal rainfall in the northwest regions. This probability is higher (40%) in the rest of the country. Overall, probabilities of normal to above normal rainfall are 75 percent across the country. According to the information from GHACOF50, the 2018 Deyr season is expected to start earlier than normal with normal cessation in many parts of the Somalia but an early cessation is likely in the northwest regions of the country. There is also an increased likelihood of warmer than normal average temperatures across Somalia. The anticipated average to above average Deyr rains are expected to further enhance pasture and water availability for livestock, improve livestock body condition and reproduction and facilitate increased crop cultivation in crop growing areas of Somalia. On the downside, normal to above normal rainfall is also likely in parts of the Ethiopian highlands which contribute significantly to the flow into the two main rivers in Somalia (Juba and Shabelle). As a result, there will be an increased risk of flooding along Juba and Shabelle rivers. Low lying areas of Galgaduud, Mudug, parts of Nugaal and other regions may experience flash floods during the forthcoming Deyr season due to the forecast heavy rains.

Tropical Storm LUBAN expected to lead to winds of medium strength with moderate rainfall amounts in Bari and Sanaag regions in Somalia. A tropical storm that developed in the northern Indian Ocean is expected to make a land fall in Yemen in 3 to 4 days. The storm poses an immediate threat to the shipping lane that links Somalia and Gulf states. Further, it may affect the coastal areas of Bari and Sanaag regions of Somalia in the next 48 to 72 hours from today (12 October 2018). Moderate rains and winds of low to medium strength will be experienced in areas situated in the coastal areas of Bari and Sanaag regions. The impacts are expected to be of lower magnitude compared to recent tropical storms that have been experienced in this area. However, it is advisable to take the necessary precautions since the winds associated with the tropical storm might lead to destruction of weak structures. Flash floods are also foreseen in these areas. SWALIM and partners are monitoring the situation and will update you accordingly. For more details on tropical storm tracking you can consult: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ or contact swalim@fao.org.

Saadaasha dhawaan uu soosaartay Shirweynaha Saadaasha Cimilada ee Weyn Geeska Afrikada (GHACOF50), oo soo baxday 28 Agoost 2018, waxay tilmaameysa inay dhici karto in roobabka Deyta (Oktoobar- Diseembar) ay noqdaan caadi iyo kuwo sarreeya caadiga guud ahaan Soomaaliya. Si gaar ah, saadaashu waxay muujineysaa in qiyaastii boqolkiiba 35 ay roobabku caadiga ka sarreeyaan gudaha Gobollada Waqooyi Galbeed. Qiyaastaasu waa ka sarreysaa (40%) in kale ee dalka (Jaantuska 1). Guud ahaan, suurtogallada roobabka caadiga ah ilaa kuwa caadiga ka sarreeya waa 75 boqolkiiba dalka oo dhan. Sida laga soo xigtay xog laga helay (GHACOF50), xilliga Deyrta 2018 waxaa la rajeynayaa in ay bilawdaan wax ka hor inta caadi ah oo ay si caadi ah uga joogsadaan qaybo badan oo ka mid ah Soomaaliya balse joogsiga hore waxay u badan tahay isla gobollada waqooyi-galbeed ee dalka. Waxaa sidoo kale jira oo laga yaabaa heerkulku kordha oo ka diirran isku celceliska heerkulka caadiga ah ee Soomaaliya. Celceliska la filayo ee ka korreeya celceliska roobabka Deyrta waxaa la rajeynayaa in ay sii wanaajiyaan daaqa iyo biyaha u helitaanka xoolaha, hagaajinta xaaladda xoolaha iyo taranka iyo fududeynta sii kordhida beerashada dalagyada beeraha gudaha goobaha dalagyada lagu beerto ee Soomaaliya. Dhanka kale, roobab caadi ah ilaa caadi ka sarreeya ayaa sidoo kale laga yaabaa in ay ka da’aan qaybo ka mid ah buuraleyda sare ee Itoobiya kuwaas oo si aad ah uga qayb weyn ka qaadanaya socodka labada webi ee ugu waaweyn Soomaaliya (Jubbooyinka iyo Shabeelle). Natiijo ahaan, waxaa jiri doona khatar kordhaysa oo ah fatahaadaha webiyada Jubba iyo Shabelle. Goobaha hooseeya ee Galgaduud, Mudug, qaybo ka mid ah Nugaal iyo gobollada kale ayaa laga yaabaa inay la kulmaan fatahaado inta lagu jiro xilliga Deyrta soo socda sababtoo ah waxaa ka jira saadaasha roobab culculus. Saamaynta la filayo 1. Beeraha iyo Xoolaha Roobabka aad u kordhaya xilligii Deyrta 2018 waxaa la rajeynayaa in ay kor u qaadaan qoyaanka ciidda, taas oo fursado u abuuraysa in ay aad u kordhaan labada qayb ee dalagyada beeraha iyo koboca waxsoosaarka beeraha iyo shaqooyin ka helidda meelaha dalagyda beeraha ku tiirsan ee dalka. Celceliska la filayo oo ah mid ka badan celceliska roobabka Deyrta ayaa la rajeynayaa inuu sii wanaajiyo daaqa iyo biyo u helitaanka xoolaha taas oo sii wanaajinaysa xaalada xoolaha iyo dhalmada. 2. Deegaanka Waxaa lagugula talinayaa in la hirgeliyo tallaabooyin waxqabad oo lagu ilaaliyo ciidda si loo yareeyo xaaluf deegaameedka sababaya ciid-hallowga, boholaha dillaaca iyo nabaad guurka. Beelaha maxalliga ah waa in sidoo kale lagu dhiirrigeliyo in ay beeraan dhir deegaanka ku habboon iyo sidoo kale calafka xoolaha si loo kordhiyo dhirta iyo geedaha dhulka dedka u ah. 3. Maareynta Musiibada Marka eego roobab culus ee la saadaalinayo inay ku dhacaan dooxooyinka labada webi Jubba iyo Shabeele ee gudaha Soomaaliya iyo meelaha u dhawdhaw buuraleyda sare Itoobiya, ayaa loo badinayaa in ay sabab u noqdaan fatahaado meelaha gebiyada webiga daciifka ah iyo kuwa furan. Waxaa jira dhowr gebiyo wabiga oo furan oo khatar keeni kara xitaa xaaladaha roobabka caadiga ah. Daadad burqanaya ayaa sidoo kale laga filan karaa meelaha daadadka u nugul, ee hooseeya. Dawladda, maamullada degaanka, beelaha wabiyada iyo la-hawlgalayaasha ayaa waxaa lagula talinayaa in ay qaataan tallaabooyin yaraynaya halista fatahaada iyaga oo xiraya goobaha gebiyada webiyada furan ka hor bilawga roobabka bisha Oktoobar. 4. Khayraadka Biyaha Biyaha helitaanka, isticmaalka xoolaha iyo dadka labadaba, ayaa la filayaa inuu horumar sameeyo taas oo ah natiijada saadaasha celceliska oo ka sarreeya celceliska roobabka Deyrta. Tani waxay abuureysaa fursado ah qabsashada biyaha iyo u kaydinta isticmaalka mustaqbalka ee beelaha degaanka. Sidaa darted, beelaha waxaa lagu dhiirigelinayaa in ay kordhiyaan tallaabooyinka biyo qabsashada iyo kaydinta iyaga oo garabsanaya maamullada degaanka, xukuumadda iyo la-hawlgalayaasha.