The last 10 days have seen extremely heavy rains in some parts of southern and central regions of Somalia causing flooding and displacements in a few places. Bay region saw the heaviest amounts of rainfall with some station surpassing the annual average rains in a few days. Rainfall activities are expected to decrease in the coming week given the 3 days and one week rainfall forecasts. There remains a moderate to high risk of flooding in the middle and lower reaches of both Juba and Shabelle rivers where the river levels are currently very high.

Roobab fudud ilaa kuwo dhexdhexaad ayaa sii socday guud ahaan dalka iyo meelo badan oo gobollada koonfureed ah oo laga diiwaaniye roobab ilaa xad fiican. Roobab culculus ayaa la saadaalinayaa toddobaadka soo socda dhexdhiisa (Khariidadda 2) inay ka da’aan gobollada koonfurta iyo bartamaha Soomaaliya. Buuraleyda sare ee Itoobiya ayaa sidoo kale la filayaa in ay hesho roobab culculus inta lagu jiro toddobaadka la saadaalinayo. Iyadoo la tixgelinayo saadaasha roob-di’idda, heerarka webiga ayaa la filayaa in ay kor u kacaan oo ay ku sababaan ilaa dhammaadka toddobaadka halis fatahaado dhexdhexaad ilaa kuwo sare gudaha deegaannada dhexe iyo kuwa hoose ee Webiga Shabeelle.

The three day cumulated rainfall forecast is pointing towards light to moderate rains in scattered areas of the country and this is expected to increase in quantity and space as the week progresses, given the one week forecast. Light rains are also expected in the upper parts of Ethiopian highlands whose rainfall contribute significantly to the river flow in Somalia. River levels in the middle reach of Shabelle are currently high with a high risk of flooding in Jowhar and its environs.

Saadaasha Roob-di’dda la isu geeyey saddexda maalmood waxay tilmaamaysaa in Gobollada Dhexe iyo kuwa Koofureed ee dalka ay roobabku ay u socon doonaan kuwo fudud ilaa dhexdhexaad sidaas oo kale buuraleyda sare ee Itoobiya waxaana la filayaa in uu kordho xaddigi iyo baaxad ahaan inta toddobaadku socdo, sida lagu muujiyey. Qaybaha Galbeed ee Soomaaliland iyo qaybaha koonfureed ee Soomaaliya oo ku jiraan Jubada Hoose, Shabeelaha Hoose iyo Shabeellaha Dhexe waa ay qalalnaan doonaan inta lagu jiro muddada la saadaalinayo. Heerarka webiga dhulka bartamaha Shabeelle hadda kor ayey u kacsan yihiin oo waxaa ka jira halis xoogan oo fatahaad gudaha Jowhar iyo deegaannadeeda.

The three days cumulated rainfall forecast is pointing towards light rains in the southern regions bordering Kenya and Scattered places in Somaliland. Light rains are also expected in parts of Bari region of in the north within the three days. The one week forecast is calling for increased rains in Somaliland and the upper parts of the Juba and Shabelle basins within the Ethiopian highlands. River levels in the middle reach of Shabelle are currently high with a moderate risk of flooding in Jowhar and the environs given the rainfall forecast.

Saadaasha Roob-di’dda la isu geeyey saddexda maalmood (Khariidadda 1) waxay tilmaamaysaa in gobollada Koonfureed ee xuduudka la leh Kenya meelo ka tagtagsan oo ku yaal Soomaaliland ay heli doonaan roobab fudfudud. Waxaa sidoo kale saddex beri gudahooda laga filayaa roobab fudfudud qaybo ka tirsan gobolka Bari ee xagga Waqooyi. Saadaasha hal toddobaad (Khariidadda 2) waxay sheegaysaa roobab kordhaya gudaha Soomaaliland iyo qaybaha sare dooxooyinka Juba iyo Shabeelle ee gudaha buuraleyda saree e Itoobiya. Heerarka webiga dhulka bartamaha Shabeellehadda kor ayey u kacsan yihiin oo waxaa ka jira halis fatahaad oo dhexdhexaad ah gudaha Jowhar iyo deegaannada lagu xusay saadaasha roob-di’idda.

Light to moderate rains continued in some places across the country with the southern regions recording relatively good rains in many places. Heavy rains are foreseen in the coming week in South and central regions of Somalia. The Ethiopian highlands are also expected to get heavy rains within the forecast week. Given the rainfall forecast, the river levels are expected to rise and causing moderate to high risk of flooding in Middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River towards the end of the week.

The three days cumulated rainfall forecast is pointing towards light to moderate rains in central and southern regions of the country and this is expected to increase in quantity and space as the week progresses, given the one week forecast. Light rains are also expected in the upper parts of Ethiopian highlands whose rainfall contribute significantly to the river flow in Somalia. River levels in the middle reach of Shabelle are currently high with a high risk of flooding in Jowhar and the environs.

The three day cumulated rainfall forecast (Map 1) is pointing towards light to moderate rains in scattered areas of the country and this is expected to increase in quantity and space as the week progresses, given the one week forecast (Map 2). Light rains are also expected in the upper parts of Ethiopian highlands whose rainfall contribute significantly to the river flow in Somalia. River levels in the middle reach of Shabelle are currently high with a high risk of flooding in Jowhar and its environs.

Normal to below normal rains expected in most parts of Somalia during the Deyr 2017 season. The Deyr rains are usually shorter and less in quantity than the Gu rains. However, they are beneficial in supporting agricultural activities and boosting water availability for different uses. Generally the season starts in late September and ends in November. Nevertheless, this varies from place to place across the country with the northern parts receiving the rains much earlier than the southern parts. The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) has confirmed a drastic reduction of the chances of experiencing an El Nino event during the September to December rainy season. The rainfall forecast indicates that the Deyr 2017 season in Somalia is expected to be normal (40% probability of normal rains) with a tendency of 35 % probability of below normal rains in most parts of the country. This also includes part of the Ethiopian highlands which contribute significantly to both Juba and Shabelle river flow inside Somalia. Further, the southern coastal regions of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle are expected to experience normal rains (40% probability of normal rains) with a tendency of 35% above normal rains. This forecast is a consensus forecast designed for a regional audience that addresses the rainfall totals summed over the three-month period from October to December 2017. However, SWALIM and other technical partners will keep updating this forecast  for shorter lead time periods and will share with you through the regular bulletins throughout the rainfall season. Given the existing conditions and the rainfall forecast, problems related to water scarcity are likely to persist especially in the northern parts of the country where the previous three rainy seasons were below normal. There is also potential for human-livestock conflicts over limited water resources in these areas. Close monitoring of the situation and contingency measures are necessary in order to adequately cope with the situation. However, flash floods cannot be ruled out as well as river line flooding due to weak river embankments and artificial river bank breakages for irrigation purposes. Increased water supply is expected in areas where normal rains will be experienced. In such cases, communities should take advantage of the rains to harvest rain-water for future use, using simple technologies. On the other hand, in case of depressed rains replenishing of the surface water points may be minimal and therefore communities should use the available resources sparingly.