The week ending 09 April 2017 saw moderate rains in parts of Somaliland and southern regions in Somalia. No significant rains were reported in Puntland. The Ethiopian highland also received good rains that led to a sharp increase in river levels inside Somalia and consequently restoring the river flow in the lower reaches which had gone dry since the beginning of the year. The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours (Map 1) indicates little or no rains in the country. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 16 April 2017 shows light to moderate rains in few pockets of Somaliland, Bay and Bakool with little or no rains in other regions (Map 2).

The Gu 2017 rainy season started in parts of Somaliland during the last week of March. Many stations in the region recorded moderate rains while southern parts of Awdal region recorded heavy rains that were distributed within five days. This brought an immediate relief to the area which has been experiencing a prolonged dry period like the rest of the country. More rains are expected in April and May. The rains are yet to start in many other areas of the country, including Puntland and southern regions. The rainfall forecast for today (Map 1) indicates no significant rainfall amounts but the rains are expected to intensify with the time and space during the week ending on 10th April, 2017 as seen in Map 2. The Cumulated rainfall forecast for the week is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains in the southern regions and the Ethiopian highland (20 to 100mm). Light to moderate rains of up to 40mm is expected in Somaliland while Puntland and central regions will remain dry.

The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours (Map 1) indicates no rains in the country except a few pockets of Sanaag in the north and Gedo in the south that may receive light rains. The rains are however expected to increase towards the end of the week spreading in several places across the country. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 25 April 2017 (Map 2) shows moderate to heavy rains Somaliland and western parts of Puntland. A few pockets of Bari and Nugaal will also see light rains during the forecast period. Other places that are expected to receive good rains include the southern and central regions bordering Ethiopia. Moderate to heavy rains are also foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands which may lead to increased river levels inside Somalia towards the end of the week. Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle and the coastal areas of Galgaduud and Mudug regions will remain dry.

The Gu 2017 rainy season started in parts of Somaliland during the last week of March with the southern parts of Awdal region recording heavy rains that were distributed within five days. This brought an immediate relief to water stress in the area. The other parts of the country are expected to start receiving the Gu rains by mid April. The rainfall forecast for today (Map 1) indicates light rains of up to 20mm in the southern regions, parts Somaliland and the Ethiopian highlands. The rains re expected to increase in the same areas towards the end of the week as seen in Map 2 which is valid up to 11 April 2017. Little or no rains are foreseen in Puntland and central regions during the forecast period.

The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours indicates no significant rains in the country. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 26 April 2017 shows moderate to heavy rains Somaliland and western parts of Puntland. A few pockets of Bari and Nugaal will also see light rains during the forecast period. Other places that are expected to receive good rains include the southern and central regions bordering Ethiopia. Moderate to heavy rains are also foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands which may lead to increased river levels inside Somalia towards the end of the week. Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle and the coastal areas of Galgaduud and Mudug regions will remain dry.

Xilligii Guga sanadka 2017 wuxuu ka bilowday qaybo ka mid ah Soomaalilan intii lagu guda jirey toddobaadkii laga soo gudbay ee Maarso iyadoo qaybaha koonfureed ee Gobolka Awdal la diiwaaniyey roobab mahiigaan ah oo ku fidsanaa shan maalmood. Tani waxay keentay in degdeg looga soo kabsado cadaadiskii deegaanka biyaha ka haystay. Qaybaha kale ee dalka waxaa la filayaa in ay bilaabato helitaanka roobabkii Guga marka la gaaro bartamaha Abriil. Saadaasha roob-da’idda maanta (Khariidad 1) waxay muujinaysaa roobab fudud oo gaaraya ilaa 20mm gudaha Gobollada Koonfureed, qaybo ka tirsan Soomaaliland iyo Buuraleyda sare ee Itoobiya. Roobabka waxaa la filayaa inay ku kordhaan isla deegaannadaan ilaa dhammaadka toddobaadka sida lagu arkayo gudaha Khariidadda 2 taas oo sax uun ku ah ilaa 11 Abriil 2017. Xoogaa ama roob la’aan ay la saadaalinayaa gudaha Puntland iyo Gobollada Dhexe inta lagu guda jiro muddada la odorosay.

The Gu 2017 (March/April to June) rainfall forecast points towards near-normal to below-normal rains within the Juba and Shabelle River basins. However, flooding along the two rivers may still occur, especially in areas with open river banks/weak river embankments, in the event of increased river flow. SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages by mapping them using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM); as well as verifications based on field observations where feasible. All the observations reported refers to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. Four types of breakages have been identified, namely; open, potential, closed with sandbags and closed. The open breakages are those that are still open as observed on the latest VHR image available, therefore a field verification is needed before planning any repair. The potential breakages represent points that have weak river embankments. The closed with sandbags points are defined here as those that been temporarily closed with sandbags making them still vulnerable for further breakages. The closed points are those that were previously open but have since been closed using heavy machinery, which prevents further flooding in the short to medium term. The attached maps show the open, potential and closed with sandbags points along the two rivers. In summary, eighteen (18) open points along the Shabelle and nineteen (19) along the Juba were identified. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have been identified. It is worth noting that the methodology relies heavily on satellite images with limited field verification. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available at all. Maps of the status of river breakages, with detailed information, have been produced at large scale and can be obtained from SWALIM offices.

Most parts of Somalia are facing serious drought conditions with the larger part of the population facing severe to extreme drought conditions. Since the last half of 2016, the severity has been spreading spatially and the impacts getting worse with time. Some climate models are already predicting a poor rainy season in the coming season which may further aggravate the existing drought conditions. However, this forecast will be confirmed in the coming month during a regional Climate Outlook Forum. The months of January and February usually experience the lowest amounts of river flow along the Shabelle River. January 2017, has however seen significantly below normal levels along the river since the beginning of the month. Some parts of the river in the lower reaches have dried up. This has been caused by below normal rains experienced in the upper parts of the Shabelle basin during the previous season which in turn has led to reduced river flow and over utilization of the river water for various uses both in Ethiopia and inside Somalia.

Waxaa saddexda maalmood ee soo socota gudaha qaybaha dalka inta badan ka jiri doona hoos u dhac xoogan oo ah arrimaha roob da’a. Inta badan meelaha gudaha dalka waxay ahaan doonaan qalayl marka laga reebo xeebta koonfureed oo laga yaabo inay hesho roobab fudud.

In the next three days light to moderate rains will be received in southern and central parts of the country and the Ethiopian highlands. The north western regions will receive scattered rains while the north eastern parts will remain dry in the same period.