The 2016 Gu rainfall season has continued to spread widely in terms of time, space and quantity over the last one month. The Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia have experienced moderate to heavy rains since the beginning of the season. There has also been heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, which contributes about 90% of the river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. These rains have subsequently led to increased river levels along the two rivers, with flooding being reported in a few areas. The Flood Risk and Response Management Information System (FRRMIS) on the SWALIM interactive web page is updated every morning with current River levels. On the FRRMIS site, you can see current levels compared to the long-term mean and also to the levels that indicate flood risk. Using recent satellite imageries and field reports SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages information which had been issued in February 2016. Two open breakages (Bayaxaaw and Bardheere) which were previously marked as potential points have been identified in Middle Shabelle. The breakages are about 10m wide and pause an immediate threat to nearby villages and cropped land. The attached tables provide details of the open and potential river breakages along the two rivers.

Light rains are expected to prevail in a few places within Puntland and Somaliland as well as the coastal areas of southern regions and the upper parts of the Juba and Shabelle River basins in Ethiopia. Other parts of the country will remain dry during the forecast period. The river levels in the upper parts of Shabelle River in Belet weyne , Hiraan region have remained at full capacity for the last few days. Riverine areas within Belet Weyne town and the surrounding are currently flooded. This flood wave is expected to be transmitted to the downstream reaches in the next few days. There still remains a moderate risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers owing to the high river levels and existing open and weak river banks in the middle and lower reaches.

The three days rainfall forecast calls for more rains in northern parts of the country while light rains are expected in the central and southern parts. There is a high risk of flash floods in the coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal regions. The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the two rivers.

Wet conditions persist in many parts of Somalia as a result of heavy rains in the country. The Ethiopian highlands have been receiving heavy rains in the last few weeks. Following these heavy rains, river  levels have increased drastically along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Further more, flash floods have been reported in some areas in Puntland and Somaliland due to heavy rains in those areas. The 3 days rainfall forecast (Map-1) points towards continued heavy rains with an increase towards the end of the week (Map-2). Given the rainfall forecast, observed river levels along the  two rivers are expected to continue rising further, especially in downstream areas. Today’s river level at Belet Weyne along the Shabelle River is 6.60m. These high levels area expected to be transmitted further downstream with a likelihood of flooding. There is therefore a high risk of flooding in the coming few days along the Shabelle River, while a moderate risk of flooding is foreseen along the Juba River. The foreseen heavy rains are also likely to cause flash floods in built up and low lying areas within Somaliland, Puntland (especially in Bari and Nugaal regions) and the central parts of the country.

Wet conditions with moderate to heavy rains are expected to persist in the next three days in most parts of Somaliland (Awdal, W/Galbeed, northern Togdheer, and northern parts of Sanaag). The northern parts Bari region in Puntland as well as the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive moderate to heavy rains too. Other parts of the northern Somalia and parts of southern and central regions inside Somalia will experience light rains during the forecast period.

The last 24 hours continued to see an increase of rainfall amounts in many parts of the country with some stations recording over 50mm in some parts. The three days forecast is calling for more rains across the country. However, there will be a reduction of rainfall amounts in Bari and Nugaal regions located in Puntland . Heavy rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period. There is a moderate risk of flooding in middle and lower Shabelle in the coming days.

The three days rainfall forecast is calling for a reduction of rainfall activities in many areas. Light rains may be experienced in western Somaliland and southern regions The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands are expected to get moderate rains. Dry conditions are expected in the other parts of the country.

The last 24 hours continued to see an increase of rainfall amounts in many parts of the country with some stations recording over 50mm in some parts. The three days forecast is calling for more rains across the country. But with a reduction of rainfall amounts in Puntland . Heavy rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period. There remains a moderate risk of flooding in middle and lower Shabelle in the coming days.

The wet conditions with moderate to heavy rains are expected to persist in the next three days in most parts of Somaliland and Puntland and the Ethiopian highlands. Other and parts of southern central regions are expected to record light too moderate rains withn the same period.

The three days rainfall forecast is calling for an increase of rainfall activities in many areas of the country. Heavy rains of between 40mm to 150mm will be experienced in the Ethiopian highlands while most parts of Somalia may get up to 50mm within the three days.

Most parts of Somaliland, northern parts Bari region in Puntland as well as the Ethiopian highlands will continue to receive rains in the next three days. Other parts of the northern Somalia (Nuugal and southern Bari) and parts of southern and central regions inside Somalia will experience little or no rains during the forecast period.

The last 24 hours have seen heavy rains within the Juba and Shabelle basins both in Ethiopia and Somalia. This has led to a drastic increase of river levels along the two rivers. Today the river level at Luuq along Juba is 6.10m which above the high risk of flooding. River flooding have reported in Luuq area and the surrounding. The three days rainfall forecast is calling for more rains in the basins. Given the rainfall forecast and the rising levels there is a high risk of flooding along the Juba River as well as the Middle and Lower reaches of Shabelle River in the coming days.

During the second Dekad of April 2016 (11th – 20th), there was an increase of rainfall activities in Somaliland and a few places in the southern regions. Heavy rains also continued to be received in the Ethiopian highlands leading a further increase of river levels in Somalia. Most parts of Puntland and the central regions of the country remained dry during the same period causing more concern in the drought stricken areas of Puntland.

The rainfall forecast for the next three days points towards moderate to heavy rains in the southern, North western and parts of Sanaag regions as well in the Ethiopian highlands. Most of Sool, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions are expected to record little or no rains during the same period.

The last week has seen moderate to heavy rains in some parts of Somaliland which came as a relief to the area that had been hard hit by a prolonged dry period. Some stations like Boroma, Gebilley and Dilla recorded over 100mm of cumulative rainfall in seven days. In Puntland, only parts of Bari region have recorded rains in the last few days while the central and southern parts of the country received minimal rains over the last one week. Moderate to heavy rains have also been reported in the Ethiopian highlands and this has consequently led to an increase in river levels in the upper reaches of Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. The three days rainfall forecast is calling for moderate rains in Most parts of Somaliland and the southern regions. Wet conditions are expected to persist in the Ethiopian highlands. Dry conditions are expected in Galgadud, Mudug, Nugaal and Bari regions within the same period.

During the first Dekad of April 2016 (1st – 10th), most parts of Somalia recorded good rains marking a possible start of the Gu rainy season this year. The northern parts recorded significant rains while the southern while central parts received little rains. The Northwest Agro‐pastoral, Guban and West Golis pastoral areas of Somaliland which have remained dry for a long period experienced a relief when moderate to heavy rains were received in many parts of the area. Dilla and Boroma recorded the highest amounts of rainfall of 107mm and 83mm respectively. Other surrounding areas such Hargeisa and Gebilley also recorded significant amounts of rainfall. The southern parts of Sool and sanaag regions did not record any rains. A few paces received light to moderate rains during the period under review. This also came a s relief especially to the livestock sector following the depletion of pasture in the area due to current drought conditions being experienced here. The rains are expected to increase further until the end of the season.

The last 24 hours have seen an increase of rainfall amounts in many parts of the country including Puntland and other central regions that have not had any significant rains since the beginning of the season. The three days forecast is calling for more rains across the country. Heavy rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period.

Little or no rains are foreseen in Somalia for the next 24 hours. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands whose rains contribute significantly to the river flow in Somalia are expected to receive moderate to heavy rains within the same period.

Wet conditions persisted in the last few days in Somaliland with light to moderate rains being recorded in the western parts. Moderate rains have also been reported in parts of southern regions and in the Ethiopian highlands and this has consequently led to an increase in river levels in the upper reaches of Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. Most parts of Puntland and central regions remained dry with a few places in northern Sanaag region receiving light rains. The three days rainfall forecast is calling for a reduction of rainfall activities in many areas. Light rains may be experienced in western Somaliland and southern regions The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands are expected to get moderate rains. Dry conditions are expected in the other parts of the country.

Significant rains have been received in many areas of Somaliland especially in the western regions in the month of April. Light to moderate rains were recorded in Puntland in the last few days bringing an immediate relief to the dry and hot weather; however drought conditions are still apparent in the area. The rains are expected to improve the drought conditions in both Puntland and Somaliland. The central parts of Somalia including Mudug and Galgadud regions have received little rains and remain water depressed. The southern regions have started recording moderate to heavy rains and this expected to continue in the coming week. Moderate to heavy rains continued to be experienced within the Ethiopian highlands which contributes about 90% of river flow to the Juba and Shabelle rivers in Somalia. River levels along the two rivers inside Somalia have subsequently been rising since the last week. The rising trend is expected to continue in the coming week. There is a possibility of flooding in the lower reaches of Shabelle in the coming days

Wet conditions with moderate to heavy rains are expected to persist in the next three days in most parts of Somaliland (Awdal, W/Galbeed, northern Togdheer, and northern parts of Sanaag). The northern parts Bari region in Puntland as well as the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive moderate to heavy rains too. Other parts of the northern Somalia (Nuugal and southern Bari) and parts of southern and central regions inside Somalia will experience little or no rains during the forecast period.

The last 24 hours continued to see an increase of rainfall amounts in many parts of the country with some stations in the north recording between 30mm to 50mm. The three days forecast is calling for more rains across the country. However, there will be a reduction of rainfall amounts in Bari and Nugaal regions located in Puntland .Heavy rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period.

Heavy storms have been reported in parts of Awdal and Wooqoyi Galbeed regions in Somaliland. The storms have led destruction of structures, loss of unconfirmed number of livestock and six human lives. Dilla, Jufa and Kalabaydh stations recorded 86mm, 100mm and 148mm respectively last night. The wet conditions are expected to persist in the next three days in most parts of Somalialand and Puntland. The Ethiopian highlands and parts of southern central regions will also receive moderate to heavy rains during the forecast period.

Dry conditions are expected to persist in Somalia during the coming three days. Light rains of up to 20mm are foreseen in the upper parts of the Juba and Shabelle basins in Ethiopia during the same period.

The northern parts of Somalia continue to experience drought conditions following consecutive failure of rainy seasons in the area. Further, extreme hydrological drought conditions in the upper parts of Shabelle Basin in Ethiopia have led reduced river flows along the entire channel both in Somalia and Ethiopia.