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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 13-05-2016
Light to moderate rains are expected across Somalia in the next three days. Along the coastal areas of Bari and Nugal regions the forecast calls for moderate to high rains; while in the Ethiopian highlands scattered light to moderate rains will be experienced in the forecast period.
There is a high risk of flash floods in the coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal regions.
The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the two rivers.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 09-05-2016
Heavy rains have been reported in parts Somalia over the last two days. Consequently, river levels have gone up with cases of river flooding in Gedo, Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions in the south. Flash floods were also reported in parts of Puntland following the heavy rains.
The three days rainfall forecast calls for reduced rainfall activities in the country, however, some parts in Lower Juba and northern regions may experience moderate rains. The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding is moderate.
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 04-05-2016
Wet conditions are expected to persist across Somalia in the next three days. The northern regions of the country are expected to receive moderate to high rains, while in the central and southern regions the forecast points towards light to moderate rains.
The upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle rivers are also expected to receive moderate to high rains within the same period. Given the forecast and the rising levels, there remains a high risk of flooding along the Middle and Lower Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding is remains moderate.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Shabelle River Flood Advisory 27-05-2016
Observed river levels of the Shabelle River in Somalia have remained high for the last few weeks. This has been attributed to heavy rains in the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands during the months of April and May. The River level at Belet Weyne in Hiran is currently at bank full and has remained so for the last one week as seen in Figure 1. This has resulted in over bank spillage leading to riverine floods in Belet Weyne town and the surroundings. There has been a significant reduction of rainfall activities both in Somali and the Ethiopian highlands. The high river levels being observed in Belet Weyne currently are due to the large amount of water coming from the upstream reaches in Ethiopia. Unofficial reports from Ethiopia indicate that there has been flooding in some areas and the flood water is now getting back to the river. In additional to this, there are minimal water abstractions in Ethiopia for irrigation and other purposes following the heavy rains in the highlands since April.
It is expected that the flood wave will be transmitted downstream of Belet Weyne in the coming days. Currently the river levels at Bulo Burti are very high and in less than five days this high levels will be reflected in Jowhar. There is therefore high risk of flooding in the coming few days in the Middle and lower reaches of the Shabelle river given the current situation. Areas to watch include Jowhar town and its environs; where the river level is currently high and other riverine towns in the lower Shabelle region. The situation could be further exacerbated by weak river embankments and open river banks.
For more information on this and related issues please visit: http://systems.faoso.net/frrims/rivers/floods
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Flood Alert
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 08-04-2016
The wet conditions with moderate to heavy rains are expected to persist in the next three days in most parts of Somaliland and Puntland and the Ethiopian highlands. Other and parts of southern central regions are expected to record light too moderate rains withn the same period.
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 29-04-2016
The last 24 hours continued to see an increase of rainfall amounts in many parts of the country with some stations recording over 50mm in some parts. The three days forecast is calling for more rains across the country. But with a reduction of rainfall amounts in Puntland . Heavy rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period. There remains a moderate risk of flooding in middle and lower Shabelle in the coming days.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 25-04-2016
The three days rainfall forecast is calling for an increase of rainfall activities in many areas of the country. Heavy rains of between 40mm to 150mm will be experienced in the Ethiopian highlands while most parts of Somalia may get up to 50mm within the three days.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 14-04-2016
Most parts of Somaliland, northern parts Bari region in Puntland as well as the Ethiopian highlands will continue to receive rains in the next three days. Other parts of the northern Somalia (Nuugal and southern Bari) and parts of southern and central regions inside Somalia will experience little or no rains during the forecast period.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 30-04-2016
The last 24 hours have seen heavy rains within the Juba and Shabelle basins both in Ethiopia and Somalia. This has led to a drastic increase of river levels along the two rivers. Today the river level at Luuq along Juba is 6.10m which above the high risk of flooding. River flooding have reported in Luuq area and the surrounding.
The three days rainfall forecast is calling for more rains in the basins. Given the rainfall forecast and the rising levels there is a high risk of flooding along the Juba River as well as the Middle and Lower reaches of Shabelle River in the coming days.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 04-04-2016
The rainfall forecast for the next three days points towards moderate to heavy rains in the southern, North western and parts of Sanaag regions as well in the Ethiopian highlands. Most of Sool, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions are expected to record little or no rains during the same period.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Dekadal Rainfall Update Dekad 11, April 2016
During the second Dekad of April 2016 (11th – 20th), there was an increase of rainfall activities in Somaliland and a few places in the southern regions. Heavy rains also continued to be received in the Ethiopian highlands leading a further increase of river levels in Somalia. Most parts of Puntland and the central regions of the country remained dry during the same period causing more concern in the drought stricken areas of Puntland.
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Dekadal Rainfall Update
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 15-04-2016
The last week has seen moderate to heavy rains in some parts of Somaliland which came as a relief to the area that had been hard hit by a prolonged dry period. Some stations like Boroma, Gebilley and Dilla recorded over 100mm of cumulative rainfall in seven days. In Puntland, only parts of Bari region have recorded rains in the last few days while the central and southern parts of the country received minimal rains over the last one week. Moderate to heavy rains have also been reported in the Ethiopian highlands and this has consequently led to an increase in river levels in the upper reaches of Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia.
The three days rainfall forecast is calling for moderate rains in Most parts of Somaliland and the southern regions. Wet conditions are expected to persist in the Ethiopian highlands. Dry conditions are expected in Galgadud, Mudug, Nugaal and Bari regions within the same period.
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 06-04-2016
Little or no rains are foreseen in Somalia for the next 24 hours. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands whose rains contribute significantly to the river flow in Somalia are expected to receive moderate to heavy rains within the same period.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Dekadal Rainfall Update 1st Dekad, April 2016
During the first Dekad of April 2016 (1st – 10th), most parts of Somalia recorded good rains marking a possible start of the Gu rainy season this year. The northern parts recorded significant rains while the southern while central parts received little rains.
The Northwest Agro‐pastoral, Guban and West Golis pastoral areas of Somaliland which have remained dry for a long period experienced a relief when moderate to heavy rains were received in many parts of the area. Dilla and Boroma recorded the highest amounts of rainfall of 107mm and 83mm respectively. Other surrounding areas such Hargeisa and Gebilley also recorded significant amounts of rainfall. The southern parts of Sool and sanaag regions did not record any rains.
A few paces received light to moderate rains during the period under review. This also came a s relief especially to the livestock sector following the depletion of pasture in the area due to current drought conditions being experienced here. The rains are expected to increase further until the end of the season.
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Dekadal Rainfall Update
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 26-04-2016
The last 24 hours have seen an increase of rainfall amounts in many parts of the country including Puntland and other central regions that have not had any significant rains since the beginning of the season.
The three days forecast is calling for more rains across the country. Heavy rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 19-04-2016
Wet conditions persisted in the last few days in Somaliland with light to moderate rains being recorded in the western parts. Moderate rains have also been reported in parts of southern regions and in the Ethiopian highlands and this has consequently led to an increase in river levels in the upper reaches of Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. Most parts of Puntland and central regions remained dry with a few places in northern Sanaag region receiving light rains.
The three days rainfall forecast is calling for a reduction of rainfall activities in many areas. Light rains may be experienced in western Somaliland and southern regions The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands are expected to get moderate rains. Dry conditions are expected in the other parts of the country.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Rainfall Performance Update April 2016
Significant rains have been received in many areas of Somaliland especially in the western regions in the month of April. Light to moderate rains were recorded in Puntland in the last few days bringing an immediate relief to the dry and hot weather; however drought conditions are still apparent in the area.
The rains are expected to improve the drought conditions in both Puntland and Somaliland. The central parts of Somalia including Mudug and Galgadud regions have received little rains and remain water depressed. The southern regions have started recording moderate to heavy rains and this expected to continue in the coming week.
Moderate to heavy rains continued to be experienced within the Ethiopian highlands which contributes about 90% of river flow to the Juba and Shabelle rivers in Somalia. River levels along the two rivers inside Somalia have subsequently been rising since the last week. The rising trend is expected to continue in the coming week. There is a possibility of flooding in the lower reaches of Shabelle in the coming days
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Rainfall Performance
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 07-04-2016
Heavy storms have been reported in parts of Awdal and Wooqoyi Galbeed regions in Somaliland. The storms
have led destruction of structures, loss of unconfirmed number of livestock and six human lives. Dilla, Jufa
and Kalabaydh stations recorded 86mm, 100mm and 148mm respectively last night.
The wet conditions are expected to persist in the next three days in most parts of Somalialand and Puntland.
The Ethiopian highlands and parts of southern central regions will also receive moderate to heavy rains during
the forecast period.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 13-04-2016
Wet conditions with moderate to heavy rains are expected to persist in the next three days in most parts of Somaliland (Awdal, W/Galbeed, northern Togdheer, and northern parts of Sanaag). The northern parts Bari region in Puntland as well as the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive moderate to heavy rains too. Other parts of the northern Somalia (Nuugal and southern Bari) and parts of southern and central regions inside Somalia will experience little or no rains during the forecast period.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 27-04-2016
The last 24 hours continued to see an increase of rainfall amounts in many parts of the country with some stations in the north recording between 30mm to 50mm.
The three days forecast is calling for more rains across the country. However, there will be a reduction of rainfall amounts in Bari and Nugaal regions located in Puntland .Heavy rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 12-04-2016
Wet conditions with moderate to heavy rains are expected to persist in the next three days in most parts of Somaliland (Awdal, W/Galbeed, northern Togdheer, and northern parts of Sanaag). The northern parts Bari region in Puntland as well as the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive moderate to heavy rains too. Other parts of the northern Somalia and parts of southern and central regions inside Somalia will experience light rains during the forecast period.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 28-04-2016
The last 24 hours continued to see an increase of rainfall amounts in many parts of the country with some stations recording over 50mm in some parts. The three days forecast is calling for more rains across the country. However, there will be a reduction of rainfall amounts in Bari and Nugaal regions located in Puntland . Heavy rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period. There is a moderate risk of flooding in middle and lower Shabelle in the coming days.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 20-04-2016
The three days rainfall forecast is calling for a reduction of rainfall activities in many areas. Light rains may be experienced in western Somaliland and southern regions The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands are expected to get moderate rains. Dry conditions are expected in the other parts of the country.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Update on drought and Shabelle River Levels - 31 March 2016
The northern parts of Somalia continue to experience drought conditions following consecutive failure of rainy seasons in the area.
Further, extreme hydrological drought conditions in the upper parts of Shabelle Basin in Ethiopia have led reduced river flows along the entire channel both in Somalia and Ethiopia.
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Drought watch
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Status of River Breakages Along Juba and Shabelle Rivers as at Feb 2016
The Gu 2016 (March to May) rainfall forecast points towards enhanced rainfall activities within the Shabelle river basins in Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands. Consequently, open river bank points and poor river embankments are likely to cause flooding in the event of heavy rains and increased river flow.
SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages by mapping them using very high resolution satellite imagery for the period 2015 and 2016 and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and verifications with field observations.
Three types of breakages have been identified namely; open, potential and closed. The open breakages are those that are still open during the months of January and February 2016. The potential breakages represent points that have very weak river embankment or have experienced several breakages in the recent past and minimal or no interventions have been put in place. The closed breakages are those that were previously open but efforts have been made to close them.
The attached and maps and tables provide the open and potential river breakages along the two rivers. In summary, 19 open points along the Shabelle and 23 along the Juba have been identified. Several other points with potential of breaking have been identified and need to be strengthened immediately.
It is however worth noting that the methodology heavily relied on satellite imageries and field verification with limitation of physical access at some locations. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear or not available at all.
Maps of the status of river breakages with detailed information have been produced at large scale and hard copies can be obtained from SWALIM offices.
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Map
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