Dry conditions are expected to persist in Somalia during the coming three days. Light rains of up to 20mm are foreseen in the upper parts of the Juba and Shabelle basins in Ethiopia during the same period.

The Deyr 2015 rainy season experienced El Nino conditions that resulted into good rains in many parts of the country. Despite this, the northern parts of the country are facing drought conditions. Two appeals for assistance have been sent by both the Somaliland and Puntland authorities. The drought conditions are as a result of failed consecutive rainy seasons especially in the western part of Somaliland. The situation is expected to worsen during the coming months owing to the continued depletion of available water resources in the areas. The next rainy sea-son is expected to start in late March.

We are pleased to share Issue 10 of our newsletter “SWALIM Update” for the period September 2015 – December 2015. This issue of the newsletter provides updates on SWALIM water and land information management activities such as; The SWALIM Open days in Mogadishu, the Land and Water Days in Rome, SWALIM Supports Gulley Erosion Rehabilitation Monitoring System in Puntland, Launch of the Somali National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP), a feature article on El Niño, How SWALIM Supported Early Warning and Preparedness and Feasibility Study on irrigation water management in the Middle Shabelle region complete.

According to the recently issued climate forecast for the Greater Horn of Africa, the 2016 Gu rainy season in Somalia is expected to be within normal, however, there is increased likelihood of below normal rains in some areas and above normal rains in others. The Gu rainy season is the primary cropping season in Somalia because it is more dominant in terms of quantity and reliability. 75% of the annual rainfall in Somalia is recorded during this season. The Gu rains start in March/April and ends at different times throughout the country depending on the movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which is responsible for driving the rainfall. According to the recently issued climate forecast for the Greater Horn of Africa, the 2016 Gu rainy season in Somalia is expected to be within normal. However, there is increased likelihood of near normal to below normal rains with 40% probability of experiencing normal rains and 35% probability of below normal rains in Somaliland, the northern parts of Puntland, Juba valley and parts of Lower Shabelle.

Territorial diagnostic report of the land resources of Somaliland gives an inventory of the natural resources and a territorial diagnostic report. The focus of the report on providing support to land policy development process. Natural Resource Inventory is essential for comprehensive land-use planning that proactively considers a community's land and water resources, and provides the foundation for open space planning and protection, zoning updates, conservation planning, critical environmental areas, and other municipal plans and policies. The study was accomplished through a desk assessment of the land resources using existing data (soil, climate, land use, satellite), soil survey and soil data analysis to increase understanding of soil characteristics including soil fertility and other soil production variables, livelihood and land use surveys to verify production systems (Land Use Systems) previously defined by SWALIM and analysis of soils, land use and production limitation and potential and compilation of an expanded land resources database. Inventory of the land resources data was done by staff from Somaliland Ministry of Environment and Rural Development (MoERD). Prior to required field surveys the ministry staff was trained by SWALIM on field data collection methodology. The team was then sent to the field to collect land resources data. Data was collected on land use, land cover, livelihoods, and soils in Burco and Owdweyne districts of Somaliland. These data was analyzed and results presented to Somaliland authorities in a stakeholder workshop that formed the climax of the activity by SWALIM. A report titled “Territorial diagnostic report of the land resources of Somaliland” was produced. The Natural Resource Base and Territorial Diagnostic Report for Somaliland, together with related natural resources databases, are important tools to promote inclusive access to land and other natural resources information in order to facilitate productive investments and support the country’s social and economic development. Natural resources management guidelines will also be developed based on the contents of the report.

This Contingency Plan articulates what the Federal Republic of Somalia Government through Disaster Management Authority (DMA) and with the support of partners will do to prevent or reduce any potential adverse impacts emanating from floods and drought disasters. Within this context, the Contingency Plan aims to prepare for and adequately respond to any of these common disasters when they evolve beyond the coping capacity of stakeholders. It was developed through a participatory and inclusive multi-stakeholder process and aims to promote a coordinated approach to preparedness and response before, during and after disasters. In addition, the Plan is in line with provisions of the DMA Strategic Action Plan for 2016 that proposes to put in place an early warning system to help instill Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) mechanisms in averting or minimizing the impact of disasters and also in the creation of effective emergency response and recovery plans. One of the outcome of the training of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Early Warning (EW) held from 11th to 15th October 2015 in Mogadishu was the prioritization of key hazards likely to require contingency measures. These were identified as mainly drought and floods but with other minor ones such as land degradation, epidemics, conflicts, and pest infestation. The prioritized hazards identified in the Contingency Plan were developed with three scenarios. The most likely scenario envisages that there will be drought due to the failure of seasonal rainfall or flooding characterized with above normal rainfall in some parts of the country especially the Juba and Shabelle River Basins. As a result households will be affected and in both cases require assistance for a stipulated period of time.

The 2015 Deyr rainy season was generally good with many areas in Somalia recording normal to above normal rains with exception of the western parts of Somaliland, central Puntland and parts of Gedo region in the south that recorded below normal rains. The season started off well in early October in some areas and continued to spread spatially with a peak during the last two weeks of the month. In some parts of the South and central regions El nino phenomena caused very heavy rains leading to both flash floods and riverine flooding affecting over 140 000 people. The unusual heavy rains were also beneficial to most sectors. During the first week of November, the north eastern coastline was hit by two tropical storms (Chaplla and Megh) which led to loss of livestock and destruction of property. There were also cases of flooding along the storm path and close to 70,000 people were affected.

During the last dekad of November, (21st – 30th November 2015), there was a general reduction of rainfall activities across the country with most stations recording little or no rains. However, a few stations recorded moderate rains especially in Middle and Lower Shabelle Regions. Figure (1) shows the rainfall observational network and monthly rainfall distribution for selected stations across the country. This update will be issued every 10-days throughout the Deyr rainy season.

During the week that ended on 7th December 2015, there was a further reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands compared to the previous week. However, a few areas in Lower Shabelle region recorded moderate rains which led to river floods and flash floods towards the end of the week. Satellite rainfall estimates also indicates reduction of rainfall amounts during the same period within the Juba and Shabelle basins. The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates a possibility of moderate rains in Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle regions. The risk of flooding in the lower reaches of Shabelle changes to minimal given the rainfall forecast for coming week and the decline of river levels in the last one week. The flood risk level for Juba changes to minimal during the coming week.

Moderate to heavy rains are expected along the central and southern coastal areas of Somalia in the next three days. Other areas in the south will receive light to moderate rains in the same period; while most of the northern regions will remain dry. The upper catchments of Juba and Shabelle basins in Ethiopia are expected to receive minimal rains during the forecast period.

During the week that ended on 30th November 2015, there was a further reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands compared to the previous week. However, a few stations in Middle and Lower Shabelle regions recorded moderate rains. Satellite rainfall estimates also indicates reduction of rainfall amounts during the same period within the Juba and Shabelle basins. The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates a possibility of moderate rains in Gedo, and the Jubas as well as the coastal areas of Lower Shabelle. The risk of flooding in the lower reaches of Shabelle changes to moderate due to the existing open and weak river banks and observed high river levels in the areas while the flood risk level for Juba changes to minimal during the coming week.

Wet conditions are expected to persist in the next three days in the Ethiopian highlands and Juba & Shabelle river basins inside Somalia with a possibility of river level increase. The northern parts of the country will remain dry during the forecast period.

During the week that ended on 9th November 2015, wet conditions persisted in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Most stations within the Juba and Shabelle river basins recorded moderate to heavy rains within the week. River levels in some sections of middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River are currently at full crest while the upper reaches of Jubba have increased sharply over the last few days and this is expected to reach the lower reaches in the next two days. Given the rainfall forecast and the current river levels, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. A high risk of flooding is also foreseen in the lower reaches of Juba River especially in locations where there exists open river breakages given the rainfall forecast, high river levels and existing open river breakages.

Little or no rains are foreseen in the coming three days inside Somalia. However, a few pockets in Bari, Sool and Sanaag in the north and Lower Juba in the south may record moderate rains during the forecast period.

Light to moderate rains spread across many southern and central parts of Somalia are expected in the next three days. The northern parts of the country including Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag are expected to receive moderate rains over the same period. The upper catchment of the Shabelle River in Ethiopia will receive high rains as well, which translates to increase in river levels later in the week.

During the week that ended on 23rd November 2015, there was a reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands compared to the previous week. However, a few stations recorded moderate rains. River levels are currently within normal in most sections of the two river with the exception of Jowhar areas. Given the rainfall forecast, the current river levels, existing open river banks and weak river embankments, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. The flood risk level for Juba remains moderate. Flash floods within the Juba basin may also be expected especially the areas bordering Kenya where heavy rains are foreseen during the coming week.

There will be a reduction of rainfall activities in most part of Somalia within the next three days. However, Gedo, Middle and lower Juba as well as the southern coastal areas are expected to receive light to moderate rains during the same period.

During the week that ended on 2nd November 2015, wet conditions persisted in most areas of Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Most stations within the Juba and Shabelle river basins recorded moderate to heavy rains within the week. Given the rainfall forecast and the current river levels, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. A moderate risk of flooding is foreseen in the lower reaches of Juba River especially in locations where there exists open river breakages given the rainfall forecast.

During the second dekad of November, (11th – 20th November 2015), there was a general reduction of rainfall activities across the country with most stations recording little or no rains. However, a few stations recorded moderate rains especially in Middle and Lower Shabelle Regions and a few places in central parts of Somaliland. Figure (1) shows the rainfall observational network and monthly rainfall distribution for selected stations across the country. This update will be issued every 10-days throughout the Deyr rainy season.

During the week that ended on 16th November 2015, there was a reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands compared to the previous week. Field reports indicate an increase in river levels in the headwaters of Shabelle River in the Ethiopian highlands. This flood wave is expected to be transmitted to Somalia reaches within the week. Given the rainfall forecast and the current river levels, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. The flood risk level for Juba changes to moderate level. However, there is a great concern in Middle and Lower reaches of Juba where there exists open river banks and the situation may get worse with a slight increase in river levels.

A tropical storm named MEGH has been developing in the northern Indian Ocean and is expected to affect most parts of northern regions of the country during the next four days. The storm is expected to affect coastal areas of Puntland in the next 36hours and spread further inland towards Somaliland and the central areas with time. Strong winds with heavy rains will therefore be experienced in areas situated along the storm path. Therefore, it is advisable to take the necessary precautions since the strong winds associated with the tropical storm might lead to destruction of weak structures. Flash floods are also foreseen along these areas. SWALIM and partners are monitoring the situation and will update you accordingly. For more details on tropical storm tracking you can consult: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ or consult SWALIM.

While most parts of the country are expected to remain dry, Middle Juba, Lower Juba regions, and the coastal areas of Lower Shabelle will experience light to moderate rains during the forecast period.

Most parts of northern and central Somalia will remain dry in the next three days. However, Bay Bakool, Gedo, Middle and lower Juba regions are expected to receive light to moderate rains during the same period. The Ethiopian highlands are also expected to receive light to moderate rains

Heavy rains reported in Puntland as tropical storm MEGH passes the northern coast of the country. The north eastern parts of Somalia experienced extreme weather in form of a tropical storm since 8th November 2015. The tropical storm named MEGH was associated with strong winds and heavy rains in some parts of Puntland with most stations recording more than three times their long term mean annual rainfall. For instance, Eyl recorded a total of 160mm while Allula received 154mm in a single day.

Within the last few days, heavy rains have been experienced in some parts of the Shabelle River basin both in Somalia and in the Ethiopian Highlands. Flash floods have been reported in some areas including Mataban, Mahadey Weyne, Jowhar and Mogadishu. Following the heavy rains, the river  levels have increased drastically in the middle reaches of the river. Today’s river level in Jowhar is 5.20m which has surpassed the moderate flood risk level. The rainfall forecast for the next seven days (24th to 30th October, 2015) is pointing towards heavy rains  within the Ethiopian highlands especially in the headwaters of the Shabelle basin as seen in the Map.  Given the rainfall forecast, observed river levels along the  Shabelle River are expected to continue rising further especially in downstream areas thus endangering vulnerable communities. There is therefore a high risk of flooding in the coming few days in the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle  river given the current situation and the foreseen rains. Areas to watch include; Mahadey Weyne town and its environs; Jowhar town and its environs; where the river level is currently at full crest, Other riverine towns in the lower Shabelle region such as Balcaad and Kurtunwaarey The foreseen heavy rains are also likely to cause flash floods in low lying areas of the central parts of the country.