The Deyr 2015 rains have started in some parts of Somalia. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands, Lower Juba region and north eastern parts of Somalia are expected to receive light to moderate rains within the next three days. Other parts of Somalia and the lower parts of the Ethiopian highland will receive little or no rains during the same period.

Heavy rains are expected to continue in the Ethiopian highlands and most parts of Somalia except Awdal, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Toghdheer, Bay and Lower Shabelle regions are expected to receive the highest amounts which may lead to flash floods and river floods in respective areas.

The Deyr 2015 rainy season started well in many parts of Somalia and has been increasing in space and intensity over the past few days within the Juba and Shabelle river basins both in Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. River levels in the upstream stations along the Juba and Shabelle (Luuq and Belet Weyne respectively) continued to increase over the last week. The levels in the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River are currently high. Given the current river levels and the current rainfall forecast (which indicates heavy rains within the Shabelle basin both in Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands; moderate rains expected in the Juba basin inside Somalia; heavy rains in the highlands and the coastal areas of Banadir, Middle Shabelle and Galgaduud), there is a moderate flood risk level along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle while there is no foreseen risk of flooding along the Juba in the coming week.

Scattered light to moderate rains are expected across the Juba and Shabelle river basins inside Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands. The rains extend to the central parts of the country, Nugaal and Sool Regions, while in the extreme north regions there will be minimal rainfall activity in the coming three days.

Moderate to heavy rains are expected to continue in the Ethiopian highlands and most parts of Somalia except Awdal, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Flash flood may be experienced in a few places within Bay, Bakool and Gedo regions following the foreseen heavy rains in the area.

The last 24 hours have seen heavy rains in parts of Togdheer, Hiraaan and Middle Shabelle regions leading to flash floods in the affected areas. During the next three days, rains are expected to continue in the Shabelle basin inside Somalia, the Ethiopian highlands, lower parts of Sool and Togdheer regions as well as the central parts of the country . The lower parts of Juba and north eastern parts may receive light rains within the same period.

The rainfall forecast for the next three days points towards increased rains in most areas of Central Somalia. In the northern and southern parts of the country light rains are expected; while in the Ethiopian highlands there will be moderate rains in the same period.

The Deyr 2015 rains have started in some parts of Somalia. In the coming three days, most parts of central regions are expected to receive rainfall totals of up to 20mm while the rest of the country will receive either little or no rains during the same period.

The study demonstrates the validity of using Landsat imagery to delineate fracture zones, hence areas of relatively higher groundwater potential. Recharge water is channeled along regional fractures that enhance hydraulic connectivity hence higher fluxes along these lineaments. The identification of the nearest lineaments to each village was done with the help of automatically generated lineaments and manual tracing on satellite imagery, to select potential geophysical survey sites within a 2-kilometer radius of each village.

The Deyr 2015 (September to December) rainfall forecast points towards enhanced rainfall activities due to the foreseen El Nino event taking place in the region. The foreseen enhanced rains are likely to exacerbate the situation. Consequently, poor river embankments are likely to cause flooding, there are currently 21 open points along the Shabelle river. Several other points with potential of breaking have been identified as shown in this map.