The Deyr 2015 (September to December) rainfall forecast points towards enhanced rainfall activities due to the foreseen El Nino event taking place in the region. The foreseen enhanced rains are likely to exacerbate the situation. Consequently, poor river embankments are likely to cause flooding, there are currently 21 open points along the Shabelle river. Several other points with potential of breaking have been identified as shown in this map.

Water is crucial for human sustenance, health and dignity; as a driver for business; for food and energy security; and for the ecosystems upon which our societies and continued development depend. For this report, we have invited a wide range of experts with different perspectives on water and development to share their thinking and propose new avenues for development. The topics addressed in the report include, among several others: the MDG progress and the future SDGs and the role of water in (and for) them; the need for more reduction of risks and disasters for improved water security; and the role of Information Communications Technology (ICT) for water and development. You can also read about the corporate perspective on water and development; as well as the important role of improved use of rain to provide for increased food security and poverty reduction in sub-Saharan Africa. At the core of SIWI’s work is sharing research results and knowledge. Our goal is that SIWI’s reports will enlighten and inspire the global discussion about water and development issues, thus helping to build a water wise world.

The GU 2015 rainy season started off early in many parts of the country in the third dekad of March and continued to spread spatially in the first and second dekads of April. The season was generally good in most parts of the country, with many places recording normal to above normal rains. The good rains led to improved water availability and favorable soil moisture conditions for both crop and pasture growth. However some parts of the country experienced floods, displacement of people, destruction of property and infrastructure and loss of livestock. The rains ended early in the south and central parts of the country – a cause for concern in the agriculture and livestock sectors. For more details in the season rainfall performance as well as the impacts, please see the attached bulletin

During the first dekad of June 2015 (1st – 10th), there was a decrease of rainfall activities from the previous dekad across the country with moderate rains being recorded in parts of the northern regions and no rainfall in the southern and central parts of the country. Figure (1) shows the rainfall observational network and monthly rainfall distribution for selected stations across the country. The table below is a brief summary of the rainfall situation by region for this dekad. This update will be issued every 10-days throughout the Gu rainy season.

During the third dekad of May 2015 (21st – 31st), there was a slight increase of rainfall activities from the previous dekad across the country with most stations recording normal to below normal rains during the month of May.

During the week ending on 8th June 2015, there was minimal rainfall activity within the Juba and Shabelle river basins inside Somalia and light to moderate rains within the Ethiopian highlands. Most stations recorded no rains. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is pointing towards a further reduction of rains within the Juba and Shabelle river basins with lights rains expected in the coastal areas of the basins. The river levels along the two rivers fluctuated during the past week and are currently within the normal range at this time of the year. Given the rainfall forecast and the low river levels, there is no foreseen risk of flooding along the two rivers in the coming week.

We are pleased to share Issue 8 of our newsletter “SWALIM Update” for the period January 2015 - April 2015. The frequencies of SWALIM’s newsletter have changed effective January 2015. You will now receive our newsletter every 4 months and not quarterly. This issue of the newsletter provides updates on SWALIM water and land information management activities such as: • The Re-branding of SWALIM • Expansion of the Juba River Monitoring Network • How SWALIM is Engaging with Communities to Build Flood Resilience • Land Degradation in Somalia • SWALIM Holds an Academic Open Day in Borama • Building a Sustainable Climate Data Monitoring System • Capacity Needs Assessment Study for Line Ministries We hope you will enjoy this edition. You feedback will be highly appreciated.

Floods can happen anytime and anywhere. And they can happen fast. So whether you live near the water or not, you should always be ready. SWALIM has prepared some important things you can do to prepare. This flood preparedness information leaflet covers: 1. Definition of a flood 2. Preparation before a flood 3. Actions to take during and after a flood

The Somalia rainfall forecast for Gu 2015 rainy season is calling for normal rains in most parts of the country with few areas expected to receive enhanced rains. Despite the normal rains and due to the weak river embankments in the Juba and Shabelle rivers, there is risk of flooding owing to the topography of the area, uncontrolled irrigation activities and poor river basin management due to collapse of pre-war flood control infrastructure. As part of flood preparedness and contingency planning SWALIM, using satellite images, has mapped the river breakages in the middle and lower parts of the two rivers which are most vulnerable. The breakages database produced and shared with you earlier has been updated to include recent data for the January and February 2015 period. Three types of breakages have been identified namely; open, potential and closed. The open breakages are those that were still open during the period of investigation. The potential breakages represent points that have very weak river embankment or have experienced several breakages in the recent past. The closed breakages are those that were previously open but efforts have been made to close them.

Moderate to heavy rains are expected to continue in the next three days within the north western parts of Somalia. The upper parts of Juba and Shabelle River basins within the Ethiopian highlands, whose rainfall contribute significantly to the river flow inside Somalia, may also record moderate to heavy rains during the same period. There will be a reduction of rainfall activities during the forecast period within Bari, and Sool, Nugaal, Mududg and Galgad regions. Other places including the Southern regions are expected to record light to moderate rains.