There will be a reduction of rainfall activities in most part of Somalia within the next three days. However, Gedo, Middle and lower Juba as well as the southern coastal areas are expected to receive light to moderate rains during the same period.

During the week that ended on 2nd November 2015, wet conditions persisted in most areas of Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Most stations within the Juba and Shabelle river basins recorded moderate to heavy rains within the week. Given the rainfall forecast and the current river levels, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. A moderate risk of flooding is foreseen in the lower reaches of Juba River especially in locations where there exists open river breakages given the rainfall forecast.

During the second dekad of November, (11th – 20th November 2015), there was a general reduction of rainfall activities across the country with most stations recording little or no rains. However, a few stations recorded moderate rains especially in Middle and Lower Shabelle Regions and a few places in central parts of Somaliland. Figure (1) shows the rainfall observational network and monthly rainfall distribution for selected stations across the country. This update will be issued every 10-days throughout the Deyr rainy season.

During the week that ended on 16th November 2015, there was a reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands compared to the previous week. Field reports indicate an increase in river levels in the headwaters of Shabelle River in the Ethiopian highlands. This flood wave is expected to be transmitted to Somalia reaches within the week. Given the rainfall forecast and the current river levels, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. The flood risk level for Juba changes to moderate level. However, there is a great concern in Middle and Lower reaches of Juba where there exists open river banks and the situation may get worse with a slight increase in river levels.

A tropical storm named MEGH has been developing in the northern Indian Ocean and is expected to affect most parts of northern regions of the country during the next four days. The storm is expected to affect coastal areas of Puntland in the next 36hours and spread further inland towards Somaliland and the central areas with time. Strong winds with heavy rains will therefore be experienced in areas situated along the storm path. Therefore, it is advisable to take the necessary precautions since the strong winds associated with the tropical storm might lead to destruction of weak structures. Flash floods are also foreseen along these areas. SWALIM and partners are monitoring the situation and will update you accordingly. For more details on tropical storm tracking you can consult: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ or consult SWALIM.

While most parts of the country are expected to remain dry, Middle Juba, Lower Juba regions, and the coastal areas of Lower Shabelle will experience light to moderate rains during the forecast period.

Most parts of northern and central Somalia will remain dry in the next three days. However, Bay Bakool, Gedo, Middle and lower Juba regions are expected to receive light to moderate rains during the same period. The Ethiopian highlands are also expected to receive light to moderate rains

Heavy rains reported in Puntland as tropical storm MEGH passes the northern coast of the country. The north eastern parts of Somalia experienced extreme weather in form of a tropical storm since 8th November 2015. The tropical storm named MEGH was associated with strong winds and heavy rains in some parts of Puntland with most stations recording more than three times their long term mean annual rainfall. For instance, Eyl recorded a total of 160mm while Allula received 154mm in a single day.

There will be a reduction of rainfall activities in most parts of Somalia in the coming three days. However, a tropical storm named CHAPALA is expected to make a land fall in Yemen. The passage of this tropical storm is expected to cause strong winds in parts of Bari and Sanaag regions which may also lead to heavy rains in the area during the forecast period. Areas to watch are Caluula, Qandala, Bossaso and Laasqoray.

Within the last few days, heavy rains have been experienced in some parts of the Shabelle River basin both in Somalia and in the Ethiopian Highlands. Flash floods have been reported in some areas including Mataban, Mahadey Weyne, Jowhar and Mogadishu. Following the heavy rains, the river  levels have increased drastically in the middle reaches of the river. Today’s river level in Jowhar is 5.20m which has surpassed the moderate flood risk level. The rainfall forecast for the next seven days (24th to 30th October, 2015) is pointing towards heavy rains  within the Ethiopian highlands especially in the headwaters of the Shabelle basin as seen in the Map.  Given the rainfall forecast, observed river levels along the  Shabelle River are expected to continue rising further especially in downstream areas thus endangering vulnerable communities. There is therefore a high risk of flooding in the coming few days in the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle  river given the current situation and the foreseen rains. Areas to watch include; Mahadey Weyne town and its environs; Jowhar town and its environs; where the river level is currently at full crest, Other riverine towns in the lower Shabelle region such as Balcaad and Kurtunwaarey The foreseen heavy rains are also likely to cause flash floods in low lying areas of the central parts of the country.