Light rains are expected in a few places within Somaliland as well as the coastal areas of southern regions. The rest of the country and the upper parts of Juba and Shabelle River basins in Ethiopia will remain dry during the forecast period. The river level in the upper parts of Shabelle at Belet Weyne has slightly decreased from the week-long bankful level, but still remain within the high risk level. Downstream the river levels are expected to continue rising for the next few days, posing a risk to flooding especially in middle and lower reaches with existing open and weak river banks.

During the week that ended on 16th May 2016, there was a significant reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. River levels remain high along the entire channels of the two rivers. The table below shows the total amounts received in some stations during the last week within the two basins.

The rainfall forecast for the next three days points towards moderate to heavy rains in the southern, North western and parts of Sanaag regions as well in the Ethiopian highlands. Most of Sool, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions are expected to record little or no rains during the same period.

During the second Dekad of April 2016 (11th – 20th), there was an increase of rainfall activities in Somaliland and a few places in the southern regions. Heavy rains also continued to be received in the Ethiopian highlands leading a further increase of river levels in Somalia. Most parts of Puntland and the central regions of the country remained dry during the same period causing more concern in the drought stricken areas of Puntland.

The last week has seen moderate to heavy rains in some parts of Somaliland which came as a relief to the area that had been hard hit by a prolonged dry period. Some stations like Boroma, Gebilley and Dilla recorded over 100mm of cumulative rainfall in seven days. In Puntland, only parts of Bari region have recorded rains in the last few days while the central and southern parts of the country received minimal rains over the last one week. Moderate to heavy rains have also been reported in the Ethiopian highlands and this has consequently led to an increase in river levels in the upper reaches of Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. The three days rainfall forecast is calling for moderate rains in Most parts of Somaliland and the southern regions. Wet conditions are expected to persist in the Ethiopian highlands. Dry conditions are expected in Galgadud, Mudug, Nugaal and Bari regions within the same period.

Little or no rains are foreseen in Somalia for the next 24 hours. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands whose rains contribute significantly to the river flow in Somalia are expected to receive moderate to heavy rains within the same period.

During the first Dekad of April 2016 (1st – 10th), most parts of Somalia recorded good rains marking a possible start of the Gu rainy season this year. The northern parts recorded significant rains while the southern while central parts received little rains. The Northwest Agro‐pastoral, Guban and West Golis pastoral areas of Somaliland which have remained dry for a long period experienced a relief when moderate to heavy rains were received in many parts of the area. Dilla and Boroma recorded the highest amounts of rainfall of 107mm and 83mm respectively. Other surrounding areas such Hargeisa and Gebilley also recorded significant amounts of rainfall. The southern parts of Sool and sanaag regions did not record any rains. A few paces received light to moderate rains during the period under review. This also came a s relief especially to the livestock sector following the depletion of pasture in the area due to current drought conditions being experienced here. The rains are expected to increase further until the end of the season.

The last 24 hours have seen an increase of rainfall amounts in many parts of the country including Puntland and other central regions that have not had any significant rains since the beginning of the season. The three days forecast is calling for more rains across the country. Heavy rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period.

Wet conditions persisted in the last few days in Somaliland with light to moderate rains being recorded in the western parts. Moderate rains have also been reported in parts of southern regions and in the Ethiopian highlands and this has consequently led to an increase in river levels in the upper reaches of Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. Most parts of Puntland and central regions remained dry with a few places in northern Sanaag region receiving light rains. The three days rainfall forecast is calling for a reduction of rainfall activities in many areas. Light rains may be experienced in western Somaliland and southern regions The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands are expected to get moderate rains. Dry conditions are expected in the other parts of the country.

Significant rains have been received in many areas of Somaliland especially in the western regions in the month of April. Light to moderate rains were recorded in Puntland in the last few days bringing an immediate relief to the dry and hot weather; however drought conditions are still apparent in the area. The rains are expected to improve the drought conditions in both Puntland and Somaliland. The central parts of Somalia including Mudug and Galgadud regions have received little rains and remain water depressed. The southern regions have started recording moderate to heavy rains and this expected to continue in the coming week. Moderate to heavy rains continued to be experienced within the Ethiopian highlands which contributes about 90% of river flow to the Juba and Shabelle rivers in Somalia. River levels along the two rivers inside Somalia have subsequently been rising since the last week. The rising trend is expected to continue in the coming week. There is a possibility of flooding in the lower reaches of Shabelle in the coming days