Light to moderate rains spread across many southern and central parts of Somalia are expected in the next three days. The northern parts of the country including Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag are expected to receive moderate rains over the same period. The upper catchment of the Shabelle River in Ethiopia will receive high rains as well, which translates to increase in river levels later in the week.

During the week that ended on 23rd November 2015, there was a reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands compared to the previous week. However, a few stations recorded moderate rains. River levels are currently within normal in most sections of the two river with the exception of Jowhar areas. Given the rainfall forecast, the current river levels, existing open river banks and weak river embankments, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. The flood risk level for Juba remains moderate. Flash floods within the Juba basin may also be expected especially the areas bordering Kenya where heavy rains are foreseen during the coming week.

There will be a reduction of rainfall activities in most part of Somalia within the next three days. However, Gedo, Middle and lower Juba as well as the southern coastal areas are expected to receive light to moderate rains during the same period.

During the week that ended on 2nd November 2015, wet conditions persisted in most areas of Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Most stations within the Juba and Shabelle river basins recorded moderate to heavy rains within the week. Given the rainfall forecast and the current river levels, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. A moderate risk of flooding is foreseen in the lower reaches of Juba River especially in locations where there exists open river breakages given the rainfall forecast.

During the second dekad of November, (11th – 20th November 2015), there was a general reduction of rainfall activities across the country with most stations recording little or no rains. However, a few stations recorded moderate rains especially in Middle and Lower Shabelle Regions and a few places in central parts of Somaliland. Figure (1) shows the rainfall observational network and monthly rainfall distribution for selected stations across the country. This update will be issued every 10-days throughout the Deyr rainy season.

During the week that ended on 16th November 2015, there was a reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands compared to the previous week. Field reports indicate an increase in river levels in the headwaters of Shabelle River in the Ethiopian highlands. This flood wave is expected to be transmitted to Somalia reaches within the week. Given the rainfall forecast and the current river levels, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. The flood risk level for Juba changes to moderate level. However, there is a great concern in Middle and Lower reaches of Juba where there exists open river banks and the situation may get worse with a slight increase in river levels.

Scattered light to moderate rains are expected across the Juba and Shabelle river basins inside Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands. The rains extend to the central parts of the country, Nugaal and Sool Regions, while in the extreme north regions there will be minimal rainfall activity in the coming three days.

Moderate to heavy rains are expected to continue in the Ethiopian highlands and most parts of Somalia except Awdal, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Flash flood may be experienced in a few places within Bay, Bakool and Gedo regions following the foreseen heavy rains in the area.

The last 24 hours have seen heavy rains in parts of Togdheer, Hiraaan and Middle Shabelle regions leading to flash floods in the affected areas. During the next three days, rains are expected to continue in the Shabelle basin inside Somalia, the Ethiopian highlands, lower parts of Sool and Togdheer regions as well as the central parts of the country . The lower parts of Juba and north eastern parts may receive light rains within the same period.

The rainfall forecast for the next three days points towards increased rains in most areas of Central Somalia. In the northern and southern parts of the country light rains are expected; while in the Ethiopian highlands there will be moderate rains in the same period.