The wet conditions with moderate to heavy rains are expected to persist in the next three days in most parts of Somaliland and Puntland and the Ethiopian highlands. Other and parts of southern central regions are expected to record light too moderate rains withn the same period.

The last 24 hours continued to see an increase of rainfall amounts in many parts of the country with some stations recording over 50mm in some parts. The three days forecast is calling for more rains across the country. But with a reduction of rainfall amounts in Puntland . Heavy rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period. There remains a moderate risk of flooding in middle and lower Shabelle in the coming days.

The three days rainfall forecast is calling for an increase of rainfall activities in many areas of the country. Heavy rains of between 40mm to 150mm will be experienced in the Ethiopian highlands while most parts of Somalia may get up to 50mm within the three days.

Most parts of Somaliland, northern parts Bari region in Puntland as well as the Ethiopian highlands will continue to receive rains in the next three days. Other parts of the northern Somalia (Nuugal and southern Bari) and parts of southern and central regions inside Somalia will experience little or no rains during the forecast period.

The last 24 hours have seen heavy rains within the Juba and Shabelle basins both in Ethiopia and Somalia. This has led to a drastic increase of river levels along the two rivers. Today the river level at Luuq along Juba is 6.10m which above the high risk of flooding. River flooding have reported in Luuq area and the surrounding. The three days rainfall forecast is calling for more rains in the basins. Given the rainfall forecast and the rising levels there is a high risk of flooding along the Juba River as well as the Middle and Lower reaches of Shabelle River in the coming days.

The rainfall forecast for the next three days points towards moderate to heavy rains in the southern, North western and parts of Sanaag regions as well in the Ethiopian highlands. Most of Sool, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions are expected to record little or no rains during the same period.

During the second Dekad of April 2016 (11th – 20th), there was an increase of rainfall activities in Somaliland and a few places in the southern regions. Heavy rains also continued to be received in the Ethiopian highlands leading a further increase of river levels in Somalia. Most parts of Puntland and the central regions of the country remained dry during the same period causing more concern in the drought stricken areas of Puntland.

The last week has seen moderate to heavy rains in some parts of Somaliland which came as a relief to the area that had been hard hit by a prolonged dry period. Some stations like Boroma, Gebilley and Dilla recorded over 100mm of cumulative rainfall in seven days. In Puntland, only parts of Bari region have recorded rains in the last few days while the central and southern parts of the country received minimal rains over the last one week. Moderate to heavy rains have also been reported in the Ethiopian highlands and this has consequently led to an increase in river levels in the upper reaches of Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. The three days rainfall forecast is calling for moderate rains in Most parts of Somaliland and the southern regions. Wet conditions are expected to persist in the Ethiopian highlands. Dry conditions are expected in Galgadud, Mudug, Nugaal and Bari regions within the same period.

The Gu 2016 (March to May) rainfall forecast points towards enhanced rainfall activities within the Shabelle river basins in Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands. Consequently, open river bank points and poor river embankments are likely to cause flooding in the event of heavy rains and increased river flow. SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages by mapping them using very high resolution satellite imagery for the period 2015 and 2016 and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and verifications with field observations. Three types of breakages have been identified namely; open, potential and closed. The open breakages are those that are still open during the months of January and February 2016. The potential breakages represent points that have very weak river embankment or have experienced several breakages in the recent past and minimal or no interventions have been put in place. The closed breakages are those that were previously open but efforts have been made to close them. The attached and maps and tables provide the open and potential river breakages along the two rivers. In summary, 19 open points along the Shabelle and 23 along the Juba have been identified. Several other points with potential of breaking have been identified and need to be strengthened immediately. It is however worth noting that the methodology heavily relied on satellite imageries and field verification with limitation of physical access at some locations. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear or not available at all. Maps of the status of river breakages with detailed information have been produced at large scale and hard copies can be obtained from SWALIM offices.

Dry conditions are expected to persist in Somalia during the coming three days. Light rains of up to 20mm are foreseen in the upper parts of the Juba and Shabelle basins in Ethiopia during the same period.